My last post, “On Glass & Mud: A Critique of (Bad) Corporate Design Fiction“, generated a lot of discussion about commercial design futures. Mick Costigan suggested that I was being too “high-horse” in my criticism. He (and several others) suggested that we should focus on the positive aspects of doing futures work in a constrained [...]
Tag Archives: web
Asperger’s Design Fiction I’m a fan of design-based futures work (a.k.a. “design fiction“). Videos, in particular, can be a very effective way of engaging people in complex, subtle and nuanced explorations of the future. I always applaud companies that give it a shot, especially when it represents a big step away from “business as usual” [...]
I finished my PhD at MIT this August, on “Large Scale Participatory Futures Systems: a Comparative Study of Online Scenario Planning Approaches”. I’ll write more soon, but here is the full PDF (11.4 megabytes) and the slides from my defense, below. From the abstract: This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective intelligence systems [...]
I finished guest blogging at Dave Snowden’s Cognitive Edge site recently. Go have a look and see what you think. So far I’ve blogged about: Foveal and Peripheral Vision Threats: What Kind of Threats Do We Face in the 21st Century? Learning to See the Unseen New Movement, New Mastery: Perceptual Dexterity in the 21st [...]
The following mini-scenarios were created using the SenseMaker Suite Scenarios approach developed for my PhD with Dave Snowden and Wendy Schultz. They were auto-aggregated using narrative fragments contributed by over 265 participants from around the world. In other words, participants submitted stories of the future, tagged them, and then the system clustered them based [...]
Futurescaper is an online tool for making sense of the drivers, trends and forces that will shape the future. As a user interface system, it still needs development. As a tool for analyzing and understanding complex systems, it works very well and does something I have yet to see anything else be able to do. [...]
I’ve spent the better part of the last four years working on approaches to online scenario planning as part of my PhD. During this time I have designed and implemented three systems – each of which explored a different approach to crowd sourcing, engagement and online participation in futures work. I call these experiments in “large-scale participatory futures systems”.
The MIT Center for Collective Intelligence recently published an important overview of the theory and mechanisms behind successful crowdsourcing efforts. Their report, called “Harnessing Crowds: Mapping the Genome of Collective Intelligence“, can be found here.
I recently was back at MIT presenting some of my research on web-based techniques for collaborative foresight and online scenario planning. Here are the slides from my presentation. The presentation starts with a general overview of scenario planning, then provides an example from some scenarios work I did with the Oxford Future of Cities Programme (in [...]
This presentation is about a proposed schema for online, participatory scenario planning systems using crowdsourced or “collective intelligence” approaches. It introduces theories of collective intelligence, complexity, and organizational learning in the context of uncertainty and scenario planning, and provides several examples.